According to recent research by McKinsey & Company (1), the packaging and paper industry is in a structurally different phase compared to the past decade. Whereas growth in the past was driven by e-commerce, premiumisation and rising demand, these dynamics have clearly weakened. Today, the sector is growing only modestly, with prospects at or even below the level of broader economic growth. This points to a new “low-growth regime” in which volume growth is no longer a given.

This shift is driven by a combination of factors. Consumers remain cautious in their spending, with price now taking precedence over brand or quality. At the same time, major CPG (consumer packaged goods) companies are achieving growth primarily through price increases rather than volume growth. On top of this, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff changes and highly volatile raw material and energy prices are placing additional pressure on the value chain. Regulations concerning sustainability and packaging waste, particularly in Europe, are also becoming increasingly stringent and complex.

As a result, margins are under pressure and inefficiencies in commercial and operational models are becoming more apparent. The sector is also characterised by increasing consolidation and a greater focus on cost control and leadership. According to the analysis, companies will need to adapt to this new reality by placing greater emphasis on commercial excellence, strict cost control, talent development and the use of data, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence.

The key message is clear: the era of automatic growth is over. Success in the packaging and paper industry will increasingly depend on efficiency, strategic agility and the ability to create value in an environment of structurally lower volume growth.

(1)   ‘No ordinary disruption: State of the packaging and paper industry’ (april 2026) - McKinsey & Company…”